Every bitcoin cycle has a point where the bear market ends long before investors are emotionally ready to believe it. The absolute low is eventually printed, selling pressure begins to fade, and bitcoin starts recovering. But the months that follow rarely feel like the beginning of a new bull market.
That is because bitcoin doesn't immediately return to its prior all-time high. Recovering from a major drawdown takes time, and a higher price does not necessarily feel bullish when investors remain far below the levels they remember. Even after a cycle bottom is in place, months of consolidation and gradual recovery can leave the market feeling more like a bear market than the beginning of a new one.
The recent move from approximately $63,000 to $79,000 may be an early example of this. Bitcoin is meaningfully higher from its lows, yet sentiment remains cautious. There is also a realistic scenario where bitcoin continues making progress over the next six months while remaining below $100,000. If that happens, many investors may continue to feel as though the bear market never truly ended.
But that is the nature of market cycles. The bottom is not confirmed by a sudden change in sentiment or an immediate return to previous highs. In many cases, it becomes obvious only in hindsight. By the time investors feel confident that the bear market is over, the opportunity to buy when it still feels uncomfortable may have already passed.
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